Terms and conditions
To use this melanoma risk calculator you must agree with the following terms and conditions of use.
The calculator is not intended to be used as a substitute for an independent
health professional's advice.
Please read the disclaimer for more information.
Emily's risk assessment tool aims to give an estimation of an individual's risk of developing melanoma over a 5 year period.
This model does not predict mortality or the risk of spread of melanoma once diagnosed.
The model is designed for use by doctors in the clinical setting to assist in the communication of risk to their patients. It is highly recommended that you discuss your personal risk factors and results of your risk assessment with your doctor.
Australian immigrants may be at lower risk of melanoma compared to individuals born in Australia. Melanoma risk is very low for Indigenous and darker skinned Australians. Our tool provides a crude guide only for such individuals.
During the development of this model, we have highlighted shortfalls in our current understanding of some risk factors, namely past history of melanoma, risk for number of family members affected, and number of non-melanoma skin cancers. This tool
may be updated as new information becomes available.
For information on risk factors not currently included in this risk model,
please click here.
This model needs to be validated in order to find values that define risk groups appropriately in the Australian setting.
In general, it is not the intention of the VMS to provide specific medical advice to users of its web site, but rather to provide users with information to help them better understand their health and the current range of approaches related to cancer
treatment, prevention, screening, and supportive care. The VMS urges users to consult with a qualified physician for diagnosis and for answers to their personal medical questions.
The VMS is not responsible for transmissions users may receive from linked, external web sites.
Factors not considered
In this calculator some factors have not been included:
Australian immigrants may be at lower risk of melanoma compared to individuals born in Australia. Age at arrival in Australia is thought to be the main factor affecting level of risk in immigrants.
Melanoma risk is very low for indigenous Australians as well as immigrants with skin phototype IV to VI. Our tool provides a crude guide only for such individuals.
Phototype and sun exposure history
Inability to tan has been shown to have the strongest relationship to melanoma of all non-naevus risk factors, however, it tells us little about sun protection behaviour. We do know that UV exposure correlates well with latitude. Given that tanning
ability and sun exposure history are prone to recall and reporting bias, we selected latitude to reflect the higher incidence of melanoma in northern states which was most likely due to sun exposure.
Immunosuppression, sunbed use and phototherapy
These risk factors were not included given the small number of studies available from which to draw conclusions and the limited population for whom they are relevant.